The ailing 80-year-old dictator has not been seen in public since mid July but this has not stopped the likes of Hugo Chavez, Gabriel Garcia Marquez and a conga line of Castro apparatchiks from confirming that El Comandante en Jefe is recovering well.
Well, here is another take.
According to the online predictions site NewsFutures, the likelihood of Castro returning to office is just 22 per cent.
The site runs a predictions market along the same lines as a live stock exchange, with registered “brokers” using virtual money to buy or sell predictions on various topics, pushing the probability index up or down.
Check it out here.